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Reduce Errors by Forecasting Regularly

Reduce Errors by Forecasting Regularly

 Construction project management and engineering software

Running Progress Measurements on your construction project is an extremely powerful way to get critical insight into your project’s current status and projected final results.  Progress Measurements, however, do a lot more than that; especially if you run them on regular intervals.

Regularly measuring progress and forecasting are key strategies for the project manager in any construction project. There are several reasons for this. First of all, entering percent complete on the tasks in your project is prone to some subjectivity and error. Regardless of how you go about determining percent complete – whether it’s pre-defined rules of credit,  production quantities, best-guess approach or team-based assessment – it’s practically impossible to know exactly how far along any task or activity is. There are a number of techniques for mitigating the errors in applying percent complete – and we’ll talk about more of these in other articles – but one of these techniques lies is the power of executing progress measurements on a regular basis.

In 4castplus, progress measurements are easy to do and provide a quick, high-value snapshot of where things are at right now in your project. What you may not have realized is that 4castplus also keeps a copy of all the information in your project as it was in that measurement period. So taking that snapshot means that all that information is preserved for historical reporting. If you run progress measurements on, for example, a weekly basis, 4castplus will enable you run reports on the history of how your project progressed over time, on a week-by-week basis.  

Reducing Errors

How does this reduce forecasting errors?  First of all, the project manager is empowered with good information on the rate of progress over time in the project. This reduces the guesswork involved with determining the next increment of percent complete on a task. Wild swings in percent complete and variance are markers to look out for in most areas of a project. The key here, is to watch for trends that may or may not be realistic. If there is a significant jump in percent complete from one forecast period to the next for example, there should be a good reason why.
Secondly, there is a tendency for people (this includes project managers) to be overly optimistic and eager to report results that represent an idealistic picture of a project’s progress.  When mapped out over time, these numbers will show a pattern that may or may not be favourable to that type of behaviour.

Trending – Performance is Key

Watching a project’s trending patterns over time is an incredibly valuable project analysis tool. Trending provides powerful intelligence into the performance of the various areas of a project. Performance is key. If crews, contractors are under-performing for whatever reason, it’s obviously important to know that. But it’s taken to a whole new level when you can look at performance trends. For example, if an area of your project was under-performing a month ago, you’ll want to know if that performance has improved after you applied certain corrective action.  How would you know that if you couldn’t keep a detailed history of all those performance metrics? Have a look at the chart below (click on it for a full view) for a quick glimpse of a project’s percent complete and variance trend lines to date. This is not a happy-looking project. Some sudden spikes in percent complete were followed by periods of flat progress. Then, as the project is nearing completion, a long close-out shows that early assessments were optimistic. Seeing this type of information should alert the project team that more rigorous understanding of the project state are needed. What do you think?


 Earned Value Management Software for Construction


Many project managers miss out on the value of forecasting and, equally importantly, measuring progress regularly. There is perhaps a perception that it’s a theoretical nice-to-have that doesn’t provide a huge amount of value. Either that, or perhaps it’s not well understood. Whichever the reason, with 4castplus, we’ve put a tremendous amount of effort in making the process of regular forecasting as easy and painless as possible – and we’ve provided many key reports that are available in a few clicks, which deliver quick and meaningful project information.


By Chris Ronak | July 05, 2012 | Categories: Earned Value Management, earned value management software, forecasting for construction projects, project accounting software, project cost control software, Project Cost Controls, Project Management, Project Risk Management, reducing risk on construction projects | 0 Comments

About the Author: Chris Ronak

Chris Ronak


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